Independent sports intelligence EST. 2026

The price
behind the pick.

True Edge Sports builds independent probability models that price the game before comparing it with the market.

See every model ↗Our approach
01 Model first02 Market second03 Results locked
TRUE PRICE // LIVE EXAMPLEMODEL 01
MILWAUKEEBREWERS
VS
CHICAGOCUBS
64%
36%
TRUE EDGE PRICE−178Independent model
MARKET PRICE−135Consensus reference
+
MODEL / MARKET GAP7.4 percentage points

Illustrative matchup — not a current recommendation.

TRUE MONEYLINES◆WIN PROBABILITIES◆LOCKED RESULTS◆MARKET COMPARISON◆NO GUARANTEES. JUST THE MODEL.

One platform. Every season.

Three sports.
One standard.

Each model speaks the language of its sport. Every product shares the same promise: independent pricing, transparent reasoning, and results that cannot move after the fact.

01
Live model
MLB INTELLIGENCE

Diamond Edge

Daily win probabilities, fair moneylines, pitcher and lineup intelligence, value gaps, and a timestamped results ledger.

Open Diamond Edge →
02
In development
NFL INTELLIGENCE

Gridiron Edge

True moneylines, projected spreads, totals, roster context, and matchup-level value for every NFL slate.

Preview Gridiron Edge →
03
Model preview live
NBA INTELLIGENCE

Hardwood Edge

A possession-aware basketball model built around player availability, pace, efficiency, rest, and market price.

Preview Hardwood Edge →
03SPORT-SPECIFIC
MODELS
0%SPORTSBOOK INPUT
IN OUR GRADES
100%TIMESTAMPED
RESULTS

Built to show the number—not sell the certainty.

The True Edge method

We don’t ask who will win.
We ask what the game is worth.

01

Build the probability

Sport-specific inputs create an independent expectation before any market comparison is made.

02

Convert it to a true price

Every probability becomes a no-vig fair moneyline, spread, or total that is easy to understand.

03

Measure the disagreement

We compare our number with available market prices to reveal where the gap is meaningful—and where it isn’t.

04

Lock it. Track it. Show it.

Predictions and prices are timestamped before play. Wins, losses, and simulated ROI stay visible.

Built in public

Get there before
the market moves.

True Edge Sports is taking shape now. Diamond Edge is live, Gridiron Edge is being tested, and Hardwood Edge is next.

EARLY ACCESS

One account.
Every edge.

Launch updates, model reports, and founding-member pricing are coming soon.

Join the early-access list →No spam. No guaranteed-win claims. Just product updates.